Insights by ConnectPay CEO, Marius Galdikas
As 2026 approaches, conversations in the financial technology sector continue to focus on two key themes: quantum computing and AI. But while bold predictions attract attention, the reality looks far more modest – when you look closely at how quantum and AI can realistically be used in finance next year, the picture is still unclear.
Quantum: no tangible application in finance so far
Quantum computing is often portrayed as the next revolution in finance, making AI feel almost like yesterday’s headline. In theory, it could bring sharper risk modelling, richer simulations, or faster fraud detection. Yet in practice, its relevance to day-to-day financial operations remains limited.
Most of the quantum conversation is about future encryption risks – but that’s an internet-wide issue, not a financial one. Banks will eventually adopt quantum-resilient encryption and updated security protocols, much like the transition to SSL (Secure Sockets Layer). It will be an upgrade, not a transformation. Moreover, most of the real-world applications in finance are still years away. Today, quantum computing work is still being conducted in specialized labs and national programs – not in banks running scalable, production-ready systems.
People expect quantum to reshape finance, but the practical use cases just aren’t there yet. For now, it’s exploration rather than adoption, and 2026 will be just another year of testing possibilities of where it might fit.
As AI matures, expectations cool down
On the other hand, after years of intense hype, AI is entering a more mature phase, revealing its limits and showing slower adoption in finance. Regulatory demands and concerns about sensitive data continue to limit the speed at which financial institutions deploy AI in critical functions.
McKinsey’s 2025 report shows that while 88% of organizations utilize AI to some capacity, only one-third have scaled it beyond pilots. KPMG research finds the same: many firms “use AI,” but fewer than half rely on it for anything mission-critical, often limiting it to simple automation tasks.
In reality, much of the visible innovation is happening outside of finance. In markets like China, AI-driven agents are rapidly reshaping digital habits. Super-apps such as WeChat and Grab use conversational flows to simplify complex menu systems – a shift amplified by the large portion of users who rely on voice rather than text.
But this design logic doesn’t translate directly to European banking. Banking tasks tend to be more structured: if something takes four clicks today, replacing it with five prompts won’t improve the experience. As a result, AI’s real impact in finance in 2026 will stay behind the scenes: strengthening back-office operations, compliance, risk analysis, and customer service, but not rewriting how people bank.
The most visible shift: solving the authentication paradox
While quantum and AI fuel headlines, the most immediate change next year will come from something far more concrete: how people verify their identity online. Financial institutions still rely on PINs, passwords, and step-by-step authentication flows that were designed for a pre-smartphone era. As digital services speed up, this mismatch has become increasingly visible.
This is already pushing the industry toward a more modern, device-based identity. A significant factor behind this shift is the rollout of the EU Digital Identity Wallet, which by the end of next year will allow citizens to verify identity, sign documents, and access services across borders using a single secure digital credential. Authentication is where real progress is happening. The EU Digital Identity Wallet alone will influence the daily experience of millions of people – long before quantum or advanced AI does.
Taken together, these trends show that the most significant shifts next year won’t come from the technologies with the loudest predictions. They’ll come from practical developments that make financial services more secure and more trustworthy in everyday use.
Originally published by Fintech Bloom.
